The Logic of
Certainty.
A transparent breakdown of the NEH (Nothing Ever Happens) arbitrage mechanism. Verified technical details on detection, sizing, and execution.
The Arbitrage Guarantee
Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens" markets create a structural relationship between a Parent Market and its Child Markets.
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Child YES = $1. Parent resolves NO ($1).
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All Children NO. Parent resolves YES (Parent NO = $0).
This is not a bet. It is a mathematical identity. Exactly one of (Parent NO, Child NO) pays $1.00.
Detection Algorithm
Live Market Scanning
Watches 30+ markets simultaneously with updates every fraction of a second. Tracks price changes and available volume in real time.
Profit Calculation
Subtract from $1.00 to find the profit margin
Only proceed if the margin is at least 1%
Availability Check
Checks how many shares are actually available on both sides. Skips opportunities where there isn't enough volume to place a minimum-sized trade.
First Come, First Served
Trades are executed in the order they're found. No chasing the "best deal" — the bot prioritizes reliability over greed.
Configurable Thresholds
- Min Profit 1.0%
- Scan Speed 10x per second
All data arrives through a live connection — no delays from repeatedly checking for updates.
Sizing Logic
Fixed Mode
Every trade uses the same dollar amount (e.g., $50). Simple and consistent.
Proportional Mode
Automatically invests more when the profit opportunity is larger.
Safety Cap Logic (Smallest Wins)
Execution Pipeline
Build
< 5msSign
< 10msSubmit
< 50msTrack
Real-time
Market Discovery
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1
Automatically checks for new sub-markets every 5 minutes so you never miss an opportunity.
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2
Verifies the new market is valid, then instantly starts monitoring its prices.